Get Out While You Can! Dow Headed to 5000, Charles Nenner Says

Get Out While You Can! Dow Headed to 5000, Charles Nenner Says

Posted Jul 15, 2010 07:30am EDT by Peter Gorenstein in Investing


Enjoy the recent stock market rally while it lasts. Market forecasterCharles Nenner tells Tech Ticker stocks will peak in about a month and then head south for the year.

“After late August I expect the market to go down again,” and eventually test the March 2009 lows in the next few years, he says on the phone from Israel. Therefore, long-term investors would be wise to use this rally as an opportunity to get out of stocks. “I see this as a bear market rally,” he says comparing the U.S. market to Japan – a prolonged bear market with wild fluctuations.

Until the end of August, stocks will trade in a tight range, he predicts. His near term upside target is 1155 on the S&P 500, but that’s only if it first breaks 1100. If the market finds resistance and closes below 1085, it could spell trouble.

It’s worth paying attention to Nenner’s warning. As Seeking Alpha contributor Cliff Wachtel points out, Nenner has a pretty good track record with his recent calls:

• In early 2009, when markets appeared on the brink of collapse, Nenner said the S&P 500 was going from 660 to over 1000 within the coming year.

• In early 2009, he foretold gold’s 6-month run from June in the low $900s to $1220, within mere dollars of its ultimate peak at $1225.

• More recently, in December 2009 he called the top in U.S. stocks within 4 days.

His advice for the average investor: “You don’t want to get in the market,” he says. “For the next couple of years, just be happy if you don’t lose money.”

When will it be safe to go back in the water? Not until the market experiences a lot more pain, he forecasts. Don’t bet on stocks for the long haul, “until you get below 7000. And preferably if you wait till 5000, which is my downside target on the Dow Jones.”

source here


Options Trading 24 Juni 2010

Options Trading 24 Juni 2010

Semalam trading ADBE melanjutkan sesi kemarin.

karena salah perhitungan (perkiraan harga akan naik karena volume kemarin tertinggi, candle 80/80, artinya seller sudah habis), dan terburu2 masuk PUT, dan cut loss. Pada akhirnya saham ditutup melemah dari open.


hasilnya :

2010-06-24-ADBE order_entries

Pelajaran yang diambil :

1. Plan your trade and trade your plan

2. Set aside your emotional, including blaming others for your loss

3. Watch the reversal, better wait for confirmations

Options Trading 23 Juni 2010

Options Trading 23 Juni 2010

Malam ini ada berita buruk dari New Home Sales jam 10 AM EST.

Meski malam ini The Fed sepertinya akan menstabilkan suku bunga tetap di kisaran 0 – 0,25%, market merespon dengan bearish.

Ada 2 kandidat malam ini, MSFT dan ADBE.

ADBE kemarin mengumumkan Earning dengan hasil 0,44 dan konsensus 0,43.  serta mendapat Upgrade, tetapi entah kenapa market merespon lain.


Karena telat masuk (karena memperhatikan kandidat MSFT), akhirnya ketika pukul 22.03 WIB masuk setelah menyentuh Resistance di SMA-10.

Tetapi ketika dilihat di Prophet dan Fibo, ada support di $30.73

2010-06-23-ADBE PROPHET

maka hasilnya

2010-06-23-ADBE OrderBook

Options Trading 22 Juni 2010 Market Closed

Options Trading 22 Juni 2010

Semalam trade WAG setelah pengumuman earnings di bawah expected.

Dengan sentimen negatif dari Eropa dan data Existing Home Sales yg juga below expected, diperkirakan akan Bearish.

Berikut snapshot-nya


Terlalu cepat menutup posisi, karena Stop Loss yang ketat..  Purely psychological =)

Data after market pun menunjukkan Dow off 1,4 %, S&P off 1,6%, Nasdaq off 1,2%

Options Trading 10 Juni Pre Market

Options Trading 10 Juni Pre Market

Kemarin malam skip trade karena ada acara.

malam ini setelah lihat data, tampaknya BP kmrn mengalami -15.80 (candle panjang), dengan volume trade fantastis.

dengan TA seperti ini, menunjukkan seller sudah kehilangan momentum dan akan ada reversal. tetapi berita berkata lain (baca di sini dan sini)

kita lihat beberapa hari ke depan. bila penurunan ini disertai volume yang ikut menurun, berarti akan ada perubahan trend BP.