Get Out While You Can! Dow Headed to 5000, Charles Nenner Says
Posted Jul 15, 2010 07:30am EDT by Peter Gorenstein in Investing
Enjoy the recent stock market rally while it lasts. Market forecasterCharles Nenner tells Tech Ticker stocks will peak in about a month and then head south for the year.
“After late August I expect the market to go down again,” and eventually test the March 2009 lows in the next few years, he says on the phone from Israel. Therefore, long-term investors would be wise to use this rally as an opportunity to get out of stocks. “I see this as a bear market rally,” he says comparing the U.S. market to Japan – a prolonged bear market with wild fluctuations.
Until the end of August, stocks will trade in a tight range, he predicts. His near term upside target is 1155 on the S&P 500, but that’s only if it first breaks 1100. If the market finds resistance and closes below 1085, it could spell trouble.
It’s worth paying attention to Nenner’s warning. As Seeking Alpha contributor Cliff Wachtel points out, Nenner has a pretty good track record with his recent calls:
• In early 2009, when markets appeared on the brink of collapse, Nenner said the S&P 500 was going from 660 to over 1000 within the coming year.
• In early 2009, he foretold gold’s 6-month run from June in the low $900s to $1220, within mere dollars of its ultimate peak at $1225.
• More recently, in December 2009 he called the top in U.S. stocks within 4 days.
His advice for the average investor: “You don’t want to get in the market,” he says. “For the next couple of years, just be happy if you don’t lose money.”
When will it be safe to go back in the water? Not until the market experiences a lot more pain, he forecasts. Don’t bet on stocks for the long haul, “until you get below 7000. And preferably if you wait till 5000, which is my downside target on the Dow Jones.”